Evaluating the Accuracy of Forecasting Processes of Ground Combat Technologies in a 20-30 Year Horizon

Ghorbani, Mahmoud; Pedram, Abdurrahim

doi:10.22034/edrkp.2025.492293.1063

Evaluating the Accuracy of Forecasting Processes of Ground Combat Technologies in a 20-30 Year Horizon

Document Type : Systematic Review Article

Authors

Mahmoud Ghorbani

abdurrahim pedram

Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Strategic Management, National Defense University, Tehran, Iran

10.22034/edrkp.2025.492293.1063

Abstract

Forecasting changes in military technologies has important implications for determining future battlefields, tactics, operations, and the management of defense research and development investments. In the 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, predictions were made about the emergence of defense technologies and the development of future weapons by 2020. These projections cover a variety of systems, from unmanned systems, artillery, missiles, to electronic weapons. In this paper, a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the accuracy of this category of predictions (mainly in the field of ground combat technologies) has been performed. The overall accuracy has been evaluated as very high and about 0.76 due to the use of several criteria. The major differences in accuracy are often between forecasting information acquisition and processing technologies and technologies aimed at physical impact. The evaluations are based on information available in open sources, which is almost not recognized by experts as a limiting factor in the evaluation process.

Keywords

Technology Forecasting

Accuracy Assessment

Defense Technology

Long-Term Forecasting

Forecasting Evaluation

Subjects